1. Alex Ovechkin, WSH
-Let's just say Ovie's reputation far outweighs his actual value at this point in his career. 65-point players generally aren't targeted in the 1st round, let alone with one of the first five picks. Granted, he's really only had 2 down years, and he is still pretty young at only 27 years of age, but his decline in production has been steady. While it's true that he could very well turn things around in a flash, it's far from a certainty, and if you take him high in the first round, you're going to need it to be to have any real shot at winning your league. Because, as the old adage goes: you can't win your league with your first pick, but you can lose it.
2. Corey Perry, ANA
-Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of upside here, but if you look at his career stats, his '10-'11 season, in which he recorded a jaw-dropping 98 points, sticks out like a sore thumb. While on the low side, the 60 points he recorded last season are more in line with what you can expect from him. This is not to say he isn't a top-tier winger, he's just not a 1st round pick.
3. Zach Parise, MIN
-Regardless of his drop in production last season, and his injury-plagued season the year before, Parise is still being treated like a top-5 forward in fantasy leagues this season. While it may be true that the potential is there, I just don't see it happening. Parise looked awfully similar to the 60-point player he once was in '07 and '08 last season, and the change in scenery could end up doing more harm than good. It's a big risk to take in the 2nd round, which is where he is going. So, I'd steer clear and let someone else roll the dice on him.
4. Patrick Kane, CHI
-Kane is a case of a solid 60-70 point player who gets drafted like an elite 80 point sniper, all thanks to a single season of production. Of course, if you can get him in the later rounds, he's a steal. But, if you overreach in the early rounds, you're taking an awfully big risk on a guy who may not be one of the most disciplined guys around.
5. Patrick Marleau, SJ
-I haven't trusted Marleau ever since I drafted him during the '07-'08 season and was rewarded with a measly 48 points in 78 games. He hasn't been on my fantasy radar ever since. True, that was over 5 years ago, and he's recovered well enough since then, but he is 6 years older now, and his production has been in marked decline for the past two seasons. So, if I didn't trust 26 year old Marleau, I'm certainly not going to trust 32 year old Marleau. Let's just say, if you draft him expecting 70-80 points, you may be disappointed. Treat him like a 60-point player, and draft him accordingly.
6. Dany Heatley, MIN
-Heatley's move to Minnesota didn't really pay off last season, after posting only 53 in 82 games, but fantasy owners seem to be banking on the idea that he'll return to the Heatley of old with the addition of Zach Parise to the roster. While that may not be a bad bet to make, I wouldn't be so sure. Heatley's starting to get up there in years, and has seen a dip in production over the last several seasons. So, like any other player, if you can get him later rather than sooner, he might be a pleasant surprise. But, know that it's a gamble. It could pay off, but you'd be a fool to take him before a surer bet.
7. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA
-While Getzlaf does have the potential to be a point-per-game player, injuries in the '10 and '11 seasons seriously derailed him last year, when he posted a puny 57 points in a full 82 games. Granted, this could be a bounce-back year for him, but what I find even more concerning was not just the drop off in points, but the lack of goals scored in particular. In days past, you could pretty much count on the Zlaf for 20+ goals per season. But with only 11 scored last year, it looks like injuries may be forcing him to resort to a playmaker role. That's all well and good, and he still has a place on your fantasy roster, but if you end up drafting him as if he's still a point-per-game player, the odds are fairly high you'll get burned. Fluke seasons are one thing, but declining production due to multiple injuries is another issue entirely. If you're lucky, you may still get your ppg player, but you may only get 50 or 60 games out of him. So, buyer beware. Damaged goods.
8. Thomas Vanek, BUF
-Fantasy owners may not be quite as high on Vanek as they once were, but he still goes off the board several rounds earlier than he should. For all intents and purposes, he's good for about 65 points per season. Yes, he could possibly be good for a little more than that, but he could also be liable to do much worse. Lest we forget, he was a 50-point player only 3 years ago. And, given the influx of youth in Buffalo, he could very well be the odd man out in the rotation. At 28 years old, he's no spring chicken anymore, and the Sabres have plenty of prospects to go around.
9. Joe Pavelski, SJ
-It's not as if Pavelski is flying off the board in the early rounds, like some of the players above, but it might be a bit of a stretch to expect a 70 point season out of him. Of course, he's capable of it, but he's also capable of posting 40 points as well. And, I'm inclined to believe we've already seen his ceiling, when he posted 66 points in 74 games in 2011. He's certainly not a bad player to have on your roster, but I see more downside here than upside. So, he's the sort of player I wouldn't target, but would take if he fell to me.
10. Teemu Selanne, ANA
-A Hall-of-Famer, no doubt. But at 42 years of age, it's hard for me to believe that Selanne can piece together yet another age-defying season. Granted, if anyone can do it, it's him, and he could end up providing great value if you can get him in the later rounds, but with all things considered, I'd avoid him until at least the 10th round. Yes, he did post a remarkable 80 points in only 73 games two years ago, but if you're banking on that, you're likely to go bankrupt. And consider, before last season, Selanne hadn't played a full season in four years, so injuries are always a concern with him, and even more so now that he's 42.
No comments:
Post a Comment