My CBS, money-league, fantasy football draft is scheduled for tomorrow night. It will be my one and only team for the season. I used to draft 10 - 15 teams per year (sometimes more), but I've found that having a single team is much more enjoyable. Granted, I have yet to stumble out of the gate and piss away my hopes during the first few weeks (knock on wood), and if such misfortune does eventually befall me, I may have to reexamine my philosophy, but as things stand, I tend to get much more involved when I put all my eggs in one basket. I can follow the players, for one, which is pointless when you've got 10 teams, because you've pretty much got every player on the field and can't tell who plays for which one of your teams.
I've managed to land the #1 overall pick, which is a sort of double-edged sword. You get the player of your choice, but then have to wait 20+ picks until you get to pick again. I'm fairly set on Jamaal Charles (RB - KC), but it's hard to pass up LeSean McCoy (RB - PHI) running in Chip Kelly's offense. And, of course, Adrian Peterson (RB - MIN) is always looming in the background as well. But I think Charles is a most complete player out of the three at this stage in his career. Granted, excessive TDs may have skewed his numbers a bit last season, and Knile Davis (RB - KC) may start to eat into his touches, but McCoy is all but guaranteed to take a hit in the passing game now that he has Darren Sproles (RB - PHI) in the backfield to contend with. Meaning, his value more on less hangs on another 1600+ yd. rushing attack, which may be difficult to replicate.
Of course, the 1st round is the easy part. The picks that come after that are where it gets a little more difficult, and I've read about all kinds of different draft strategies this year, but the consensus seems to be "take the best player available with your first 3 picks, regardless of position", which I wholeheartedly disagree with. Not to brag, but I've won a few fantasy football leagues in years past, yet I've never done it by choosing the best player available, regardless of position, with my first 3 picks. I learned long ago that running backs are far more valuable than any other position on the board, as their production is almost impossible to replace when they go down (which they do... often). And the RB pool is looking especially thin this season, so if you end up taking 3 wide receivers back-to-back-to-back, or a tight end and 2 WRs, you're digging your own grave because the RBs you will need so desperately in the later rounds simply won't be there. Sure, you could get lucky and end up with a 2nd or 3rd stringer who ends up surprising everyone, but I wouldn't base my draft strategy on that.
Point being, you can get serviceable WRs in the later rounds. There are plenty of them out there. Similarly, once the top 3 QBs are off the board, there are about 10 - 12 guys who will give you decent numbers. And the catch is, teams only need to draft 1 or 2 QBs, at most. But some owners, like myself, may end up drafting 5 or 6 RBs. And they can disappear off the board awfully fast if you're not paying attention. Granted, it can be tough to will yourself to take a seemingly half-ass RB, like Toby Gerhart (RB - JAC) or Ryan Mathews (RB - SD) when a top-shelf wideout is staring you in the face, but you'll thank yourself later, when you have the depth and don't need to resort to starting some chump off the waiver wire who is only good for a handful of points, at best. Of course, the real test comes in choosing the right RBs, and that's why it's important to pick them early and often. If your league uses a Flex position, I would easily advise taking RBs with your first 3 picks. And even if you don't use one, it may not be such a bad idea anyway. Trust me, I've done it both ways. And I always end up kicking myself when I don't load up on RBs (then I watch the team that did get flooded with trade offers, which is another plus to having depth at RB. You are almost guaranteed to land trade offers at some point, and sometimes fairly desperate ones at that).
With that being said, you don't want to overdo it. I wouldn't sacrifice too much for depth, and if an elite WR falls to me in the 2nd or 3rd round, I'll take him, but that's rarely how it works out. You've got to be smart about it, of course -- pay close attention to the players being taken -- but generally speaking, it's a good idea to draft as RB-heavy as you can.
Edit: The more I think about it, the more I want McCoy. Even with Sproles cutting into his receiving yards, he does have a much better O-line than Charles, and that could make a difference. So, I'm torn. My pick really will come down to the wire.
+NFL
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